MCL accidents - within 7 miles of home?

[Red Brown]

We all know the driving school mantra..."most automobile accidents happen within seven miles from your house"...is this true for the average motorcycle rider?

The obvious logic explained is most people are complacent when riding in familiar terrain and tend to be more vigilant when wandering away from a know driving turf.

Could it be that we take the local routes more often and therefore statistically speaking, we are just more likely to get in an accident?

RB

[Gilk51]

I thought it was within 5 miles...


Easy to solve, though, just move...

[Red Brown]

Originally Posted by Gilk51

I thought it was within 5 miles...

Easy to solve, though, just move...

How about if you move from bleiblerville, texas to nyc?



RB

[Soozy]

Really this has to be a probability thing. We are in that area around our homes so much more often than the distant places. There is also the possibility that the return from a distance puts us increasingly more fatigued as we draw near home. Fatigue = mistakes Going away to a distance never fatigues me because I am running on adrenaline and excitement and those tend to sharpen the senses.

[dukey33]

I've always hated that expression.
It is all about probabilities and exposure. You are exposed to that 5 or 7 mile range twice every time you leave your home (unless you don't go home). The more exposure you have to any potential event, the greater the likelihood of it being realized. Like the Texas Lotto says, You can't win if you don't play.

[XoZe]

Agreed. That's why I speed when leaving the house to get outta the danger zone ASAP!! HMM...just noticed my post count...888. Must be that the danger increases when doing three consecutive "figure eights"!

But yeah...statistically most of the time is spent near home.

[Soozy]

I did a little math on that statement that you can't win unless you play...which is true, BUT look at the percent of improvement from 0% chance of winning if I don't play to.....

wait for it....






0.000000569% chance of winning if I do play.

*disclaimer: Math research conducted by Soozy's 8th graders*

Also, because the game starts over each time, every time you play you have the same odds. Playing frequently does not increase your odds...buying more chances at the same time does. Probably this explains why the "groups" win sometimes.

[Cagiva 549]

Originally Posted by Red Brown

How about if you move from bleiblerville, texas to nyc?



RB

OK all you TWT ers that have ridden thru Bleiblerville chime in . Watch out for the traffic . SEYA

[ksawatsky]

The accident that totaled my Concours last year and crushed my foot happend well within this zone. Ironically, I had just returned from a 6000+ mile trip... I agree that it's likely just probability, but I like the "speed to get away" idea!

[Tracker]

that's why I get off and push my bike the last 5 miles to the house.

re: lottery: tax on bad math students

[Hairsmith]

Statistics also clam that the average motorcyclist rides 2,000 miles a year.
If that is all they ride they cant get far from home.
Figure most can also find a bar with in that 7 mile ride.

[Morgan Buchanan]

Yeah, that thing is, as we all agree, a probability issue. If you have an 80% chance of having an accident within 10 miles of home and spend 90% of your time within 10 miles of home, you're obviously safer in that 10 mile range on a mile-for-mile basis, but that doesn't change the fact that you're still more likely to have those accidents within that range...because that's where you ride. Duh..it's hard to have an accident where you're NOT riding, that's for DARN sure. That'd be great tho...have the accident where you aren't so you're not there to get hurt!

100% of lottery winners have a ticket that SOMEONE bought! So the real key to lottery success is to get other people buying you tickets!

[h2000fb]

Originally Posted by XoZe

Agreed. That's why I speed when leaving the house to get outta the danger zone ASAP!! HMM...just noticed my post count...888. Must be that the danger increases when doing three consecutive "figure eights"!

But yeah...statistically most of the time is spent near home.

No one's mentioned that the last several miles from your house is how long your neighborhood dog ambushes you, rams your bike because the he can't stop fast enough, or tries to bite off your exhaust!