Kawasaki discontinuing the KLR650

Jack Giesecke said:

I've suspected for years that the motorcycle market would die. Didn't know when I'd see it, but it's really dying right now. Another ten years and the market will be dead except for some electrics that are totally useless to me. And, I don't see THAT market being very large even for city dwellers. I doubt people will even own personal transportation in cities in the future unless they like to get out of town for fishing or hunting trips or something. There are many people/sheeple that have never been outside "the loop/beltway" in these cities. They only read about trees and open spaces in books. Motorcycling, at least for me, has always been about adventures and travel, seeing new spaces and things, taking the trail little traveled. I guess that attitude will die, too. Well, I have my memories along with pictures on 35mm.

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Hmm, I don't see any evidence that the industry in general is dying, nor the "adventure / travel" sector in particular. The GS is the something near the best selling motorcycle humans have ever made. The Africa Twin was a hugely successful model for Honda and both BMW and Honda have re-upped for new models in the future. Sure, most owners of these never touch dirt, but that's true on the F150 Raptor and Jeep's, I'd wager. That doesn't mean SUV's are dying.

If you're worried about the urban rider, the grom and related 125's have sold in huge numbers. Honda's new/old Monkey bike also shows them doubling down on this segment. Ducati has a whole flock of (beautiful) "Urban" bikes and also continue to invest in them. The 300 and 400cc sport bikes are also supposed to have triggered a bit up-tick in sales over the previous 250cc versions, along with the Versys 300 and other "mini-adventure" bikes.

City dwellers may well not own cars in the future, but to me that means MORE motorcycles (gas, electric, scooters, etc) not fewer.

Electric bikes? Might as well argue against 4-stroke, EFI, or rotary or diesel / turbo. It's a tool like any other. It'll be an advantage in some uses, and a disadvantage in others. But in any case it's irrelevant to the 'health' of the industry.

In my mind, the motorcycle industry is correcting from a previous bubble, and re-investing heavily to ensure future success. The KLR's retirement has nothing to do with either of these. Walk through any motorcycle store (especially in big cities) and you'll see more variety, meeting more needs and accessible to more people than ever before.

(ok, end of rant, back to your regularly scheduled show...)

I see a real problem for the industry. Prices are skyrocketing and incomes are not keeping pace with them. There is nothing to indicate this will change any time soon. Let's face it, bikes for most people are still luxury items. Cars and trucks, not so much. So as all the other expenses for people continue to rise and they are forced to start making choices, more and more people are likely to be forced to buy used bikes instead of new bikes, or no bikes at all. Even used bikes are often still above what I can realistically pay for a bike.

I am not going to finance a $20K+ bike for five or more years. That is just a guaranteed loss. They lose value way too fast and you get upside down on the note real quick. Adventure bikes are going to take some hits, that is just the nature of the game. I can't afford to go out on a super expensive bike and risk doing any serious damage to it. That just puts you even further in the financial hole! I have been watching used bike sales I frequently see people asking really high prices for them because they still owe money on them, yet the going prices are considerably less than what they need to get out from under the note. I've been watching some on Advrider that have been sitting unsold for many months. I think this is a big factor in the push for all the 700-800cc adventure bikes. I think it is also a big reason why Honda worked so hard to keep the AT1000 around the $15K mark. If they could make an AT 800 that comes in around $12K, I think they'd sell a lot of them.

As bad as I might want to upgrade to a new bike(s), I just can't justify the expense. I suspect I am not the only person in this position. I also suspect this is going to be the case for more and more people. Harley experienced it worse than the other manufacturers because of the massive bubble in their prices prior to the 2006-8 meltdown. They are still trying to recover from that.

Jeff S said:

Hmm, I don't see any evidence that the industry in general is dying

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Doesn't look fantastic:

Jarrett said:

Doesn't look fantastic:

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Classic debt inflated bubble...

Tourmeister said:

If they could make an AT 800 that comes in around $12K, I think they'd sell a lot of them.

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I think its called the 790 Adventure.

Tourmeister said:

Classic debt inflated bubble...

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Gosh what happened between 2000 and 2007?

Oh yeah, people spent money WAY above their means, stacked up huge debt and then ... 2008. Recession.

I doubt that chart reflects as much about the industry but more about the economy.

Come on guys, look at the bright side. We could be a Minsky Moment away from everybody riding Super Cubs.

Hey, those new Cubs are awesome.


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mitchntx said:

I doubt that chart reflects as much about the industry but more about the economy.

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That's a bit of a chicken and the egg thing though... If the economy stinks, it affects the industry. When people's homes are being foreclosed, their cars repossessed, and they're losing jobs, they are less likely to be buying bikes.

Excellent points about the economy. But I don't see it as a report card on the industry.

With better fuel economy, safety, unprecedented performance from small packages indicates more of a healthy and innovative industry.

Any of us who have tried to buy and sell bikes over the last couple years has been a victim of an extremely soft market.

I think that is due to a flooded market which generates stiff competition and the fact that the market is evolving. I just don't think the younger generation is as enamoured with performance. It's about style and how good they look in a selfie posted on insta-snap-twit-book

Someone should buy a brand spankin new KLR, leave it in the crate for 100 years, & then their great grandkids would be millionaires........

Now I really want one.

Tourmeister said:

Classic debt inflated bubble...

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Not entirely...demographics is the driver





Look at the peak age for buying motorcycles, btw the peak age for selling motorcycles is 51



I will go back to my closet....


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I am sure demographics is a factor.

Looking at the first chart though, I was thinking about Greenspan's actions with regard to interest rates. After the dot com bubble popped around 99/2000, he went wild and started pumping money into the economy like crazy. 2006 was the height of the insanity. 2007/2008 is when it really imploded and we got the whole "meltdown".

It is interesting that the graph basically flat lines from 2009 on. After all, we are supposedly in a great recovery if you believe our alien overlords. It has been a paper recovery for Wall Street, but not so much for "main street" America. Automobile manufacturers/dealers are struggling as well, not just motorcycle manufacturers/dealers. All of our local dealers are sitting on inventory even with super low rates and seven year financing! I've not checked, but I would suspect that RV sales might follow a graph very similar to the first one above as well.

I am not sure what the last graph is showing Is it a distribution of total life time spending based on age?

I think a lot of the bubble had to do with aging Baby Boomers who decided it was time to buy that big bike and go search for their lost youth. This is just one of many ways our generation has created a "pig in the python" effect.

As the first-wave Boomers (1946-51) have moved well into or past their 60s, they're not exactly prime motorcycle buyers anymore. That, combined with the crash of '08, killed the bubble. If you scratch off the bubble but look at the longer trend, you see slight but constant growth of the MC market over the years.

Dang, that graph just told me I'm a mid life crisis stereotype

Looks like I've got 3 good years til I have to sell them all.

MisterK, we gotta figure out how to size your pictures more browser friendly

Jeff S said:

Hmm, I don't see any evidence that the industry in general is dying, nor the "adventure / travel" sector in particular. The GS is the something near the best selling motorcycle humans have ever made. The Africa Twin was a hugely successful model for Honda and both BMW and Honda have re-upped for new models in the future. Sure, most owners of these never touch dirt, but that's true on the F150 Raptor and Jeep's, I'd wager. That doesn't mean SUV's are dying.

If you're worried about the urban rider, the grom and related 125's have sold in huge numbers. Honda's new/old Monkey bike also shows them doubling down on this segment. Ducati has a whole flock of (beautiful) "Urban" bikes and also continue to invest in them. The 300 and 400cc sport bikes are also supposed to have triggered a bit up-tick in sales over the previous 250cc versions, along with the Versys 300 and other "mini-adventure" bikes.

City dwellers may well not own cars in the future, but to me that means MORE motorcycles (gas, electric, scooters, etc) not fewer.

Electric bikes? Might as well argue against 4-stroke, EFI, or rotary or diesel / turbo. It's a tool like any other. It'll be an advantage in some uses, and a disadvantage in others. But in any case it's irrelevant to the 'health' of the industry.

In my mind, the motorcycle industry is correcting from a previous bubble, and re-investing heavily to ensure future success. The KLR's retirement has nothing to do with either of these. Walk through any motorcycle store (especially in big cities) and you'll see more variety, meeting more needs and accessible to more people than ever before.

(ok, end of rant, back to your regularly scheduled show...)

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Talk to anyone who owns a bike shop. James, the owner of El Campo Cycles says if it weren't for the ATV/UTV market and the zero turn mowers he sells, he'd just close up. Bikes sit on his showroom and collect dust (Suzuki/Honda).

I'm not an urban rider, just speculating on that.

Well, I've considered the 250s, Honda CRF250 dual sport in particular. El Campo Cycles had a Suzuki 250 dualsport on sale for $3K, but it's sort of anemic on the highway and I'd rather have the Honda for short of 5 when I was looking at it a few years ago. I live in the middle of nowhere, but don't ride all that much and a 250 would be fun, I think, but the KLR ain't broke, fugly as all get out, but it ain't broke and at the rate I ride it, I'll likely quit riding before it quits running. So, why spend money? I'm beyond trying to impress anyone with my ride.

Jack Giesecke said:

Well, I've considered the 250s, Honda CRF250 dual sport in particular. El Campo Cycles had a Suzuki 250 dualsport on sale for $3K, but it's sort of anemic on the highway

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Off topic, I just sold a CRF250L to buy a KLR due to anemia as you put it.

Aside from fuel injection, there's really nothing about the CRF250L that I like better than this KLR.

Looks just fine to me...




Yes, there are $20k bikes out there. There are also Grom's, TW200's, CRF250L's, Versys 300's and loads of bikes under $10k. We seem to push our attention to the $20k bikes, but not because the others don't exist.

My local Kawi dealer has a new Versys 300X for well under $5k out the door with 0% financing options.

It's certainly easy to get into a new bike without breaking the bank.

Jarrett said:

Off topic, I just sold a CRF250L to buy a KLR due to anemia as you put it.

Aside from fuel injection, there's really nothing about the CRF250L that I like better than this KLR.

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Well, I'm old school, kinda prefer to keep it simple with a carburetor. Yeah, the 250 would get around in the woods better, but I have an ATV for that, now. The KLR definitely does road work better. I live down 2 miles of rough dirt road. It handles THAT great.

maximus_flavius said:

In related news, milk crate prices have plummeted due to declining demand.

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lol good one

Jeff S said:

Yes, there are $20k bikes out there. There are also Grom's, TW200's, CRF250L's, Versys 300's and loads of bikes under $10k. We seem to push our attention to the $20k bikes, but not because the others don't exist.

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For my needs, a 250/300 really doesn't get it done. At best, perhaps a DRZ 400 might work. The KLR 650 was tried and found wanting.

I do fairly technical dual sport riding, often loaded with camping gear. Think stuff like the rough passes around Ouray/Silverton. My 530 EXC works very well for that. The KLR could do it, but it was WAY more work than my 530!! A newer 450/500 EXC with the FI would be nice because I get tired of having to rejet for the higher altitudes. Even used, those are still pretty pricey, like $7-8K. Something like the KTM 690/Husky 701 would be nice, but again pricey and starting to get heavy. The bigger BMW 800s or the upcoming KTM 790 start getting too big/heavy as well.

The other riding I tend to do is milder dual sport, but often two up, and sometimes two up with luggage. This pretty much dictates a 1000+ cc bike, not so much for power, but rather for frame size (room for passenger) and carry capacity. V-Stroms (650 or 1000) just don't do it for me. I had a 650 and did not like it at all off the pavement. It CAN do two up, but it does it poorly. I've ridden a few 1K Stroms and just did not like them at all. So bikes that might work start with things like the BMW 800 GS, KTM 790, Honda AT 1000, Yamaha Tenere 1200, Triumph Tigers (800 or 1200), etc,... Something like my 07 1200 GS works exceptionally well. The big KTMs might also work well. Finding ANY of those bikes under $10K is tough, even if used. I bought my GS used in 2015, already 8 years old and it still cost me $8K. Any NEW bike is going to easily be $10K and up...