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Texas routing help needed - please

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z (20th 7am to 21st 7am central time)

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening from northwest
Arizona into southern Nevada and Utah, along the northern Gulf
Coast, and in the vicinity of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

...Synopsis...
A strongly cyclonic 100-140 kt mid to upper level jet will dive
southeastward across the Midwest and toward the Ohio Valley during
the day, with substantial cooling aloft across the Great Lakes. Cold
air aloft coupled with the relatively warm lakes may result in
low-topped thunderstorms from northeast Ohio into western New York
during the afternoon and evening.

To the south, an east-west oriented front will continue to push
south toward the northern Gulf Coast, where 65-70 F dewpoints will
exist supporting a few weak thunderstorms prior to the front moving
offshore.

To the west, a weak upper low will approach coastal central
California, with steep lapse rates aloft extending eastward toward
the Colorado river valley. Midlevel moisture will spread northwest
across Arizona and into the Great Basin during the evening, with
scattered thunderstorms expected. Small hail cannot be ruled out
with some of the cells due to cold air aloft and modest deep-layer
shear, but severe weather is not anticipated.

So Saturday and Sunday might be drying out in Texas
 
From the DFW NWS office

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 56 58 55 70 50 / 50 100 70 20 0
Waco 55 60 58 68 52 / 60 100 80 40 0
Paris 52 56 54 69 47 / 30 90 70 10 0
Denton 54 58 55 71 49 / 60 100 60 10 0
McKinney 55 58 55 70 49 / 40 100 70 10 0
Dallas 56 60 56 71 51 / 50 100 70 20 0
Terrell 56 59 56 69 51 / 30 90 80 20 0
Corsicana 56 60 55 67 50 / 40 90 80 40 0
Temple 56 61 58 65 54 / 60 100 70 40 0
Mineral Wells 54 59 55 70 48 / 80 90 50 20 0

From the League City office
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 69 58 69 56 / 30 50 50 30 10
Houston (IAH) 62 78 64 74 60 / 30 40 40 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 73 80 72 78 66 / 50 50 50 30 20


A good chance you folks will be riding in the rain for most of the day. Be careful
 
I assume you're zonked at the motel in Allen, dreaming of overcast skies but no rain. Oh well, the local forecast (for west & SW of me) is 40% chance of showers but only 0.06" so may get fine riding conditions, at least on the Kilgore -> Conroe leg. High temp is supposed to be abt 70F so that sounds good.

GOOD LUCK TO YA!
:rider:
 
Thanks all, but in the end I decided to call it off. Although everything looks like it will be much drier today/tonight, with as much flooding as we've seen already in the area just west of Austin I don't want to chance it.

I thought I was just going to have to forfeit my fee, but I did find out yesterday that I can do the ride on another day of my choosing. Since I was thinking of riding Texas for next year's Tour Of Honor I might just make it a week of riding with the TOH and the IBA and the time to get here / get home.

Thank you to all who offered help/suggestions/advice/info; this has really been a good example of what the Moto/LD community is really like.
 
And... they're off. Here is just a few of the many "World's Toughest Riders" (of which I am not one this morning) about to set off on their 1,000+ tour of Texas this morning. I'll be back in April to knock this out. One great thing about this photo is that it shows three of the dominant brands used by LD riders: H-D (various models), Honda (typically the Gold Wing), and BMW (various models). The 4th big one would be the Yamaha FJR and then the Kawasaki Concours.

44391591_10212179155943891_8699177235497615360_o.jpg?_nc_cat=111&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-1.jpg




And this is why I'm not riding today...

44395321_10212179157823938_374532306536235008_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-1.jpg




The upside is that we will have some specific Rally Planning training this morning at 9 am that I'll be able to attend, and then put it to use tomorrow morning at 6:30 for a four hour "mini rally" around the DFW area.


:rider:
 
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That do look bad. Down here the tv guys say warm air is flowing north at high elevations and cold air flowing south at low elv. Causing condensation to precipitation. Meaning ,that wet feeling .
 
Getting worse as the day progresses. I'm sure there will be stories to be told and heard tomorrow at the awards dinner. :trust:

44339273_10212180309532730_859302993198055424_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-1.jpg



:rider:
 
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