Musings about 2-Wheel Social Distancing

[StromXTc]

Wiki:
2009 flu pandemic in the United States

The 2009 flu pandemic in the United States was a novel strain of the Influenza A/H1N1 virus, commonly referred to as "swine flu", that began in the spring of 2009. The virus had spread to the US from an outbreak in Mexico.[116]

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million cases, 274,000 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths (0.02% case fatality rate) in the United States due to the virus.[117]


I guess in 2009 we just didn't know better to FREAK OUT LIKE NOW.

My point? This too shall pass.

 

[Tim Scholz]

Well I just had a friend call and tel me his sister got a ticket as she came back into Dallas county from working in Ellis co.
I don’t know the details but she lives in desoto and works in Waxahachie. It’s a 10 mile drive and she went to work today which was in violation to the ban that went into effect last night. I’m still trying to figure how they knew unless a neighbor or co worker turned her in.

 

[humanrace]

Wiki:
2009 flu pandemic in the United States

The 2009 flu pandemic in the United States was a novel strain of the Influenza A/H1N1 virus, commonly referred to as "swine flu", that began in the spring of 2009. The virus had spread to the US from an outbreak in Mexico.[116]

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million cases, 274,000 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths (0.02% case fatality rate) in the United States due to the virus.[117]


I guess in 2009 we just didn't know better to FREAK OUT LIKE NOW.

My point? This too shall pass.

Yes, this too shall pass, but if the fatality rate had been 10% or 6 million deaths would we have freaked out?
"…..almost 64,000 Italians have been diagnosed with COVID-19 - or about 1 percent of the total population in a nation of 60 million. Of those, 6,077 have died, according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. That case fatality rate, nearly 10 percent......" The biggest problem is we don't know what the COVID-19 virus is going to do. Italian doctors have started withholding treatment to those they think will not survive because facilities have been overwhelmed and there is no equipment to treat them.

 

[GSBruce]

... because facilities have been overwhelmed and there is no equipment to treat them....

This is what people don't seem to get - the current hospital system does not have room for the potential patient needs for them. If it gets to that point there will be decisions to withhold hospital treatment for some.

 

[StromXTc]

Yes, this too shall pass, but if the fatality rate had been 10% or 6 million deaths would we have freaked out?
"…..almost 64,000 Italians have been diagnosed with COVID-19 - or about 1 percent of the total population in a nation of 60 million. Of those, 6,077 have died, according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. That case fatality rate, nearly 10 percent......" The biggest problem is we don't know what the COVID-19 virus is going to do. Italian doctors have started withholding treatment to those they think will not survive because facilities have been overwhelmed and there is no equipment to treat them.

Yes that is the only difference I can see as of now. As the data comes in in over a year's time I am believing that it will probably be a similar statistic to the h1n1. We are taking Extraordinary Measures to flatten the Curve (In the US). I don't believe this is going to be all the Doom and Gloom it has been made up to be.

 

[kdh]

Guys, I really wasn't hoping for a debate on the morality of riding. I'm thinking of running up to northern Arkansas to visit some cousins that I probably won't see again once I move out of Texas. So my questions are really on the practical aspects of eating and peeing and -- you know -- other stuff while on a road trip.

I'm on the road all day just about every day. Truck stops are pretty much open all day, every day, especially the big chains like Petro, Flying J, TA, Love's, and Pilot. Rules in most are pretty simple. Some have taped off the self-serve food and provide an employee to serve you. Others don't want you to bring your own containers such as water bottles and mugs inside. Some may have closed eat-in restaurant facilities located inside, but you can usually get stuff to go over the counters or through the drive through. You can walk up to a drive through window at some places and they will happily serve you.

Do not expect any sanitary products to be available, though. All already gone, so source alternatively. Most any products you might need can be sourced at home, so don't do without.

 

[Jeff S]

As the data comes in in over a year's time I am believing that it will probably be a similar statistic to the h1n1.

Well, except for the fact that there have already been 22 times more people killed from CoVid 19 than H1N1 did over a similar timeframe. WHO estimated 18,000 total deaths from H1N1, so we've blown by that number, too.

 

[StromXTc]

Yes, I hear y'all. I tried to be clear I was referring to United States statistics, but, nevermind.

 

[1202067]

We are a few weeks behind the rest of the outbreak. Don't worry, we are catching up fast. Hopefully we can get enough equipment and supplies to keep the medical system from choking and being crushed by the weight of what is coming.

 

[woodsguy]

In some ways, we riders wrote the book on social distancing. We do activities together, but at a distance of 50 feet to 100 yards. We're armored from head to toe, keeping other people's germs off us, and our own germs contained within our riding clothes.

We can pull into a gas station and fill up without getting within 20 feet of another person, or even having to expose our faces or possibly even fingers. Worst case, we can clean our hands after touching the pump, and be on our way.

Then there's eating. I don't know how many mom-n-pop restaurants are open for business these days. I do know that practically every fast food and casual dining restaurant in America has locked off their dining rooms and only does drive-through business. And that begs a question for the traveling motorcyclist -- how do we eat? Does anybody have experience trying to ride a bike through a drive-through lane at McDonald's or Chick Fil A? Are stop/go gas stations going to allow people to come inside and grab a sandwich or a bag of Doritos?

What about using the restroom? Same thing as above - with the fast food restaurants locked up, that leaves only gas stations. Will their rest rooms be open for business as usual?

Ideas? Any specific experiences over the past week? Inquiring minds want to know.

After all this debate, did/are you going? lol

 

[StromXTc]

Texas
Estimated Expenditures to Date
$ 24,207,590.00
Prepared By: Rae Walker Time & Date Prepared: 0900hrs 03/27/2020

 

[1202067]

That's not bad, but of we want to keep the economy moving, we are going to have to do better. Maybe if we add in the 2 trillion in new federal debt...

When will fiat currency end...

 

[William Wolfen]

When will fiat currency end...

When people quit believing and agreeing that it has value.

 

[1202067]

 

[Rydah]

Well, except for the fact that there have already been 22 times more people killed from CoVid 19 than H1N1 did over a similar timeframe. WHO estimated 18,000 total deaths from H1N1, so we've blown by that number, too.

View attachment 257595

Would you please show the source of this information?

 

[1202067]

The numbers I got were 18,000~ h1n1 deaths (over more than a year) and 30,000~ covid19 deaths in under a year (a few months). 22 time? I cant tell without a good aggregate. More deadly? Many times more deadly. The same? In virtually no way.

I gleaned my information from the world health organisation and the cdc.

 

[Rydah]

USA? Globally? Please show the source.

 

[1202067]

Covid19 https://www.bing.com/covid there are other sources, you can check directly with the world health organisation for example. This give the data in an easy to navigate format.
H1n1 https://www.who.int/csr/don/2010_08_06/en/

Or you can check the wiki

The numbers are global.

It's important to remember to compare apples to apples (or as close as possible). I've taken my datasets from 1 year ish for both viruses. I've also used confirmed numbers, not estimates. Is that a fair comparison? Unsure. If we did the type of testing for covid we did for h1n1 the mortality rate would look way worse. Since we have a larger datasets with covid, it may be swaying the numbers.

Over about a decade h1n1 has killed over a quarter of a million people. When we have a decade with covid I will have a better dataset.

 

[Jeff S]

The numbers I got were 18,000~ h1n1 deaths (over more than a year) and 30,000~ covid19 deaths in under a year (a few months). 22 time? I cant tell without a good aggregate. More deadly? Many times more deadly. The same? In virtually no way.

I gleaned my information from the world health organisation and the cdc.

I was comparing Covid to H1N1 over the same amount of time since "outbreak" - The chart I posted was at 76 days and thus 22x. Today (day 79), however, the math is 30855/429 = 71x.

Yes, global data, visualized here (click 'show more graphs) and sourced from WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC, JHU CSSE, DXY & QQ.

Nearly doubling the total number dead in two days is terrifying (NYC: 385 on Thurs, 728 on Sat). In the whole of the US, the doubling rate is 3 days: Wed = 942, yesterday = 2026. That means Tuesday will be 4000, Friday next week will be 8000. Unless something changes that trajectory. Hospitalization rates track the death rates (just 10x to 20x higher - and once NYC hits ICU capacity (which I believe has not yet happened) then death rate increases.)

Time alone will tell.

 

[WFO75080]

I'm still going on my trip to Ark on Wed in the RV if I can get out. Just me and 3 bikes. Wife and daughter might go and bring 4 wheeler. We will bring food and pretty much practice social distancing from anyone else. We've been here in the house for a couple of weeks. Buddy wants to go and he has his own RV. Traffic on I 30 looks like it does on a normal day.

 

[Rydah]

While I do pray for the rest of the world, I am more interested in the numbers we can have some control of. According to the CDC, there have been 1,668 deaths out of 103,321 cases.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

View the number of confirmed cases COVID-19 in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

That's a 1.6% chance of you dying, IF you get infected. With a population of 331 million here, that mean's there is a 0.03% chance of you being infected, and a 0.0005% chance of dying by this virus. I've not been able to see the breakdown by age of those dying from this virus by the CDC, but I've seen numerous sources that seem to agree that 80% for those were over 70 years of age. I'm feeling pretty darn good about my chances.

 

[Tim Scholz]

I'm still going on my trip to Ark on Wed in the RV if I can get out. Just me and 3 bikes. Wife and daughter might go and bring 4 wheeler. We will bring food and pretty much practice social distancing from anyone else. We've been here in the house for a couple of weeks. Buddy wants to go and he has his own RV. Traffic on I 30 looks like it does on a normal day.

It will be interesting to see how things go with your trip. Many people are heading to the mountains.
The county in TN On 129 just east of tail of the dragon ordered all non residents out and put concrete barriers an all highways in and out. I saw this on the super Tenere FB page.

 

[Jarrett]

Many people are heading to the mountains.

Why?

 

[Tim Scholz]

While I do pray for the rest of the world, I am more interested in the numbers we can have some control of. According to the CDC, there have been 1,668 deaths out of 103,321 cases.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

View the number of confirmed cases COVID-19 in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

That's a 1.6% chance of you dying, IF you get infected. With a population of 331 million here, that mean's there is a 0.03% chance of you being infected, and a 0.0005% chance of dying by this virus. I've not been able to see the breakdown by age of those dying from this virus by the CDC, but I've seen numerous sources that seem to agree that 80% for those were over 70 years of age. I'm feeling pretty darn good about my chances.

Apparently in China a huge percentage of people smoke so the side effects of that to your lungs when you are 65 and older is not good, add Covid in the lungs and you have a pretty bad recipe for disaster.
I’m healthy but have scarring in my lungs from two bouts of pneumonia and punctured lungs from a bad bike wreck. I’m not taking chances.

 

[Tim Scholz]

Why?

They don’t want covid to get into the county. Also they don’t have the infrastructure to support the needs of all the campers. Toilet paper and groceries etc with only small stores etc.