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The Imminent Collapse of the Motorcycle Market?

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cabanza

cabanza

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There are lots of 2024 (and some 2023) models left on the showroom floor. Dealer inventories are high. A lot of bikes are just collecting dust. Motorcycle sales are down in Europe and some parts of Asia. Is it just a market adjustment or something more serious?

My personal experience would suggest that sales are going down and will stay down for the foreseeable future. I ended up trading an R18 I simply couldn't sell. Dealer has been stuck with it since December. I had my KLR for sale for a ridiculously low price and it took about 1 month to sell. I've been looking at the For Sale forum and it looks sales are slow. My Dax was just MSRP + Honda shipping + TTL. Unthinkable on a new mini moto just a year ago.

What do you all think?
 
I've never paid much attention to new cars or bikes or their dealers. Been happy with used cars and bikes.
 
I was at AF1 today.. MAN do they have a lotta bikes in stock. At least 10 RS660 and Tuono 660's, and more Guzzi's, MV Agusta's and Moto Morini's that I though existed in the world.... So, yeah, maybe oddball bikes that aren't moving? They has probably 20 Triumph's - who had a big year in 2024 in sales... So, no, I don't think (hope) it's some industry-wide collapse.

I was surprised by some 'out the door' prices on a range of bikes. Yeah, Triumph has their Trident 660's and 400's (which are gorgeous!) and so reasonably priced, but there's a 2025 Tiger 900 that's 19k out the door. But while I was there, 20 minutes maybe, I saw a 2025 RS660 get purchased and roll out the door.

Anyway, what do I know.. but I think desirable bikes are selling, and the rest are waiting..
 
With the current economic uncertainty, I'll bet most "toy" markets are down right now. Motorcycle just happen to be our interest. I suppose it's a good time to buy if you have the money. Just be sure you really want what you're buying!

As for the market turning around, that's gonna take some stability and prosperity for the normal people of the world. Here in the states, I suppose the moto market might improve if things got bad enough that people switched to bikes from cars, but I find that highly improbable.
 
William Wolfen said:
With the current economic uncertainty, I'll bet most "toy" markets are down right now. Motorcycle just happen to be our interest. I suppose it's a good time to buy if you have the money. Just be sure you really want what you're buying!

As for the market turning around, that's gonna take some stability and prosperity for the normal people of the world. Here in the states, I suppose the moto market might improve if things got bad enough that people switched to bikes from cars, but I find that highly improbable.
Click to expand...
People bought a lot of 2 wheelers in 2008-2009 when gas prices jumped.
 
John Bennett said:
Cannot comment.

The cause of the slowdown is Political.

Scott would delete my post.
Click to expand...

I don't think that's entirely the case. Sure the current situation doesn't help but the 2024 models sitting on the showroom floor point to something different. Worldwide sales have been soft for several months. In the case of Europe, the switch to Euro 5 (emissions) has negatively impacted the sale of motorcycles and scooters.
 
John Bennett said:
Cannot comment.

The cause of the slowdown is Political.

Scott would delete my post.
Click to expand...
From Gemini:

Based on the available information, here's a summary of the motorcycle sales trend in the United States over the past ten years (approximately 2015-2025):

Overall Trend:

  • Stability (mid-2010s to early 2020s):For much of the last decade, the U.S. motorcycle market was characterized by relative stability. Annual sales volume generally hovered around the half-million unit mark. The market showed resilience to various economic and political factors compared to other industries.

  • Recent Decline (2023-Present):More recently, particularly starting in 2023 and continuing into early 2025, the market has experienced a noticeable downturn.
    • Total vehicle registrations in 2024 were reported at 553,325, down 1.7% from the previous year.
    • Sales in Q1 2023 were down 2.1% compared to Q1 2022, with a significant 10.3% drop in March 2023.
    • Early 2025 data showed sharp declines, with year-to-date sales through February 2025 down 11.2%, driven by a 20.7% drop in February itself.

    • The motorcycle manufacturing industry revenue declined at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.2% between 2020 and 2025.
    • The motorcycle dealership and repair industry revenue declined at a CAGR of 0.6% between 2020 and 2025.
Key Factors Influencing the Trend:

  • Economic Conditions:Motorcycle sales are sensitive to economic factors. Disposable income levels, interest rates, fuel prices, and overall consumer confidence significantly impact sales, as motorcycles are often discretionary/leisure purchases in the U.S. The pandemic initially caused disruptions but later led to a temporary sales boost, which has since tapered off. Recent inflation and economic uncertainty are contributing to the current downturn.

  • Demographics: The traditional motorcycle buyer demographic is aging. Attracting younger riders, who may view motorcycling differently (concerns about safety, different brand attachments), presents a challenge for the industry. However, there is some growth in participation among women and new riders.
  • Consumer Preferences: There's a growing interest in specific segments like adventure/dual-sport motorcycles. While still a niche market, electric motorcycle sales have shown increases. Scooters gained some popularity for urban use, though recent data suggests a decline, possibly due to competition from e-bikes.
  • Market Dynamics:Brand loyalty is strong, but competition is robust among major players like Honda, Harley-Davidson, Kawasaki, Yamaha, BMW, Ducati, and Indian/Polaris. Honda regained leadership in early 2025 despite declining sales, while Harley-Davidson faced significant drops.
Market Size (Revenue Estimates for 2025):

  • Motorcycle Manufacturing: Estimated at $6.7 billion.
  • Motorcycle Dealership & Repair: Estimated at $36.0 billion.(Note: Different market reports may use varying methodologies and scope, leading to different overall market value estimates)
Registrations vs. Sales:

  • It's worth noting that the total number of registered motorcycles in the U.S. has generally shown an increasing trend over the long term (nearly doubling from 4.3 million in 2002 to 8.8 million in 2023). This includes new and used bikes and reflects the total number on the road, which can increase even if newsales fluctuate or decline year-to-year. The average age of registered motorcycles has also increased.
In summary, after a period of relative stability around 500,000 annual unit sales for much of the last decade, the U.S. motorcycle market has seen a decline in new sales over the past couple of years, influenced by economic pressures and shifting consumer demographics and preferences.
 
This seems familiar.....
Seems like the industry and market have imminently collapsed on a cyclic basis.
Usually accompanied by threads of “Harley is going out of business” doom.

Yet here we are, still making, selling, and riding motos. <shrug>
 
Air conditioning. Motorcycles don't have it.
Heat and humidity is a bummer.
If it rains, you get wet.
If it is cold, you get very cold.

You can't text or work a smart phone.
You're cut off from social media.
You can't surf the Internet.
You can't play video games.

It's risky to ride in pajamas.
All the traffic is trying to hit you.
The road surface is littered
with gravel, sand, pot-holes,
tar snakes, alligators,
dead animals and live animals.

Minor accidents are painful
and can be life threatening.

In other words,
our young people have more sense
than we did.

I've only ridden about 100,000 miles,
before I quit riding,
three times,
so I may be wrong.
 
Mad Mac said:
Air conditioning. Motorcycles don't have it.
Heat and humidity is a bummer.
If it rains, you get wet.
If it is cold, you get very cold.

You can't text or work a smart phone.
You're cut off from social media.
You can't surf the Internet.
You can't play video games.

It's risky to ride in pajamas.
All the traffic is trying to hit you.
The road surface is littered
with gravel, sand, pot-holes,
tar snakes, alligators,
dead animals and live animals.

Minor accidents are painful
and can be life threatening.

In other words,
our young people have more sense
than we did.

I've only ridden about 100,000 miles,
before I quit riding,
three times,
so I may be wrong.
Click to expand...
What young people are missing by living their life through a 7 inch screen.

  1. The Feel of the Machine – No screen can replicate the pulse of a motor under you, the thump of torque as you roll on the throttle, or the lightness when you lean through a turn. A video can show it—but it can’t feel it.
  2. Real Risk, Real Reward – Watching a rider take a corner is one thing. Being the rider, making the decision, balancing thrill with skill—that’s where growth lives. That’s where confidence is earned.
  3. The Deep Calm After the Ride – There’s a mental reset that comes after hours on a bike that no scroll can touch. The screen keeps feeding the mind. Riding clears it.
  4. The Full-Body Experience – Riding’s a workout for your body and your focus. Every muscle’s engaged, every sense alert. The couch doesn’t do that. Neither does a TikTok loop.
  5. Real Memories, Not Borrowed Ones – Scrolling shows other people’s adventures. Riding gives you stories. The kind you tell around a fire, with a cold drink and a tired smile.
  6. Missing the Brotherhood – A comment section isn’t a campfire. Riders wave to strangers on the road and become friends in minutes at gas stops. It’s a real-world tribe—and they’re missing it.
 
JOD said:
[*]The Deep Calm After the Ride – There’s a mental reset that comes after hours on a bike that no scroll can touch. The screen keeps feeding the mind. Riding clears it.

[/LIST]
Click to expand...

This it for me. My blood pressure goes down and my stress melts away when I'm riding and afterwards.
Before I retired there were times my wife moved my boots and helmet to the front door rug and would ask me if there was someplace I needed to go.
When I came back I was a different person. Work stress and family stress were still there, but I could tackle it again.
My wife is wonderful. She won't ride because she has seen me too many times laying on the road because of a left turner. But she says I need to keep the bike(s).
 
Ironically, demand is down but bike prices are up. Not a great recipe for manufacturers. I have owned 30+ bikes in my life. I cannot fathom buying a brand new bike today. It is easy to find excellent used bikes for a fair price. Although there are some fun new technologies, they don't make up for the huge cost. A 2005 GSXR 1000 is 90% of any new liter class bike for 1/4th the cost (and more capable than most of us can ever use). Same applies for touring bikes and cruisers.
 
tejasbusa said:
Before I retired there were times my wife moved my boots and helmet to the front door rug and would ask me if there was someplace I needed to go.
When I came back I was a different person. Work stress and family stress were still there, but I could tackle it again.
Click to expand...
My wife has been much the same over the years. She used to ride before kids, having had four different bikes and racking up around 40K miles in the space of about 3-1/2 years. It just got to be a hassle after the kids arrived. She agreed to let me keep riding because it has the same affect on me that it appears to have on you. She's ask if there were any events I was planning to attend or any trips I might have in the works. That was her subtle way of telling me I needed to chill out :lol2: It worked though. It still does.

I see the market splitting. New bikes are just going up and up in price. For what might be seen as a toy by many, the prices have reached the realm where "average Joe" has a harder time affording them or justifying the expense even if they can afford them. I can remember $15K Ducatis being considered wildly expensive and exotic. In fact, anything over $10K was considered to be nose bleed territory in terms of high prices. This was maybe around 1999-2000. Soon after though, prices started going up in earnest and have showed no indication of slowing. Manufacturers have been pushing the smaller less expensive bikes in hopes of keeping buyers in the market and selling volume. The big expensive bikes have become much more about status if you buy them new. More and more, I see people saying they will wait for the 2nd or 3rd year release of a given generation of bike as USED before they will think about trying to buy one. Young buyers are pretty much out of the market for the big expensive bikes unless a parents buy it for them or the young person happens to have a really good job... or trust fund... I mean, by the time you drop $25-30K on the bike alone, then another $5-8K on accessories, potentially another $2000-4000 on riding gear, and other misc stuff, we are talking a major investment in something that will depreciate like a shooting star! Meanwhile, the prices for used bikes seem to be dropping slower than they used to. The demand for used bikes seems to be higher from where I am sitting. I have seen many people asking $3-5K for $20+ year old bikes that really aren't anything special.

Trucks are much the same. A basic new truck nowadays is $50K and they can easily run up to nearly $100K!! Meanwhile, old trucks from the 80s and 90s are pulling down $15K-25K depending on mileage and condition. New home construction and home sales have been slowing as well last I heard.

John Bennett is correct. Politics is involved, but it is not partisan. It's the money manipulation regardless of which party is in power. It always has been and always will be until the system collapses. The prices of everything go up because more fiat money continually flows into the economy. The rate at which that happens is constantly increasing. Ignore the ridiculous official CPI and just think back on your own life if you are 50+ years old. If you remember life before 1974, prices went up, but not super fast. Even after 74 the rate didn't shoot up right away, it increased slowly. But, by the late 80s it was picking up speed. "Low" interest rates back then were in the 10-11% range, and that was for government backed student loans! Regular credit rates for unsecured debt were even higher. They were trying to put on the brakes a bit. It did not last long though, by the end of the 90s and early 2000s, they were stomping on the gas! Prices for everything began skyrocketing about that time. We got our massive collapse 2006-2008, and the banks just papered over that, sent a few peons to jail as scapegoats, and pressed on! Interest rates have been kept ridiculously low ever since. If they were allowed to go back up to the 10-11% range, it would cause a massive financial collapse. The interest payment costs on the government debt alone would be a massive nail in the coffin of our government. It is not just our government that is in the predicament... It has nothing to do with which party you support or hate. It is about a Ponzi scheme running its course. The BRICS nations are moving forward in their attempt to break free of the dollar controlled money system. They see the writing on the wall. It is not a question of IF, but of WHEN?

So it is not politics in the sense that we normally see people arguing politics, Left vs Right, Liberal vs Conservatives, blah blah blah. It is about the unspoken power the banks have over our government through their control of our monetary system and what they are willing to do to try to put off its inevitable collapse or to have waiting in the wings to replace it when they are ready for a collapse. It won't be pretty.
 
Tourmeister said:
New bikes are just going up and up in price.
Click to expand...
This is totally true... for many, but not all parts of the market. See the Ibex 450, Triumph 400's, Royal Enfield, and even stuff like the new Honda Hornet 1000. I feel there is an emerging trend towards "value" markets like these.
 
Jeff S said:
This is totally true... for many, but not all parts of the market. See the Ibex 450, Triumph 400's, Royal Enfield, and even stuff like the new Honda Hornet 1000. I feel there is an emerging trend towards "value" markets like these.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that is what I could currently refer to as the "low end" of the market. Not that the bikes are bad. But they have compromises and trade offs that allow them to hit their price points, as budget bikes have always done (see KLR 650 :trust:). Again, this is what I was getting at with the split market comment. There is this stuff, and then a good gap to the other expensive stuff. Ironically, sometimes the more expensive stuff sells better when you'd think it shouldn't exactly because it is a status thing that lets people show everyone else that the bad times are not affecting them. I remember gas guzzling trucks selling like crazy when gas was around $5/gal here :doh:
 
tejasbusa said:
This it for me. My blood pressure goes down and my stress melts away when I'm riding and afterwards.
Before I retired there were times my wife moved my boots and helmet to the front door rug and would ask me if there was someplace I needed to go.
When I came back I was a different person. Work stress and family stress were still there, but I could tackle it again.
My wife is wonderful. She won't ride because she has seen me too many times laying on the road because of a left turner. But she says I need to keep the bike(s).
Click to expand...
You got a great one,,,,go hug her!
 
Tourmeister said:
Yeah, that is what I could currently refer to as the "low end" of the market.
Click to expand...
Gotcha. I call it "value" :) I've been encouraged by how many brands are getting into this "value" space... for so long, the only headlines were about the new 1200GS wizbang feature or how fast the next Panigale would go. But over the last years (T7 starting this trend, perhaps) there's been real interest in making the mid-weight bikes more of the focus, and yes, even building up the 'value' or low end. Triumph Trident 660? That's an 80HP triple with very good fit and finish, 420 lbs wet, MSRP = $8,595. So, yeah, you CAN spend $25k or $30k on a bike, plus $5k on farkles, and $2k on gear. You can also spend $10k, $0k and $1k and do very nearly the exact same thing.

I'm actively (but slowly) in the bike market for my next ride, but almost certainly won't be buying new (I've owned 9 bikes, bought 2 new, both far below MSRP). The thing I don't (yet?) understand is why the used market is sooo depressed (example 1, example 2, example 3 (was a Tuareg at an amazing price)), when the new market is getting so much higher for the mid- to high end bikes. It's a great time to buy used. You're probably right about the $4k 20 year old bike, but that's also not for me.

I totally agree about truck prices. I was looking for any mid to full size 4x4 just pre-pandmic. Ended up getting a Subi Outback and a harbor-freight trailer for something like 60% of the truck prices I was comparing it to (yes, I know apples to oranges, but both met my needs). I guess if you MUST have a pickup, the dealers have figured out how to extract as much money as possible from ya.

I guess at the end of the day, the bike brands try to make as much money as they can. If they know people will drop $25k on a bike today, next year they'll try $26k in bold new colors. I'm not buying either one of those, as $12k gets me all the bike I really can use. In that space, I'm excited by the growth of options in my tier, and the big value possible in the lower price tier also.
 
I have been watching the IBEX 450 for the exact same reason :trust: I like the current trend towards focusing on the smaller rides, but I promise that it won't be more than a few years before price/feature creep starts pushing them into the $15K range, which still beats spending the $$$ for the big bikes!
 
This might have something to do with it...

 
I've been wondering how long it would take for another fresh to happen since the covid bubble inflated. I knew it wasn't sustainable.
 
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